Polymarket High-Yield Address
Copy Trading Report
Most high-PnL addresses on Polymarket’s leaderboard aren’t worth copying. A single lucky political bet, win rates inflated by too few trades—follow these addresses and you’ll often start drawing down at exactly the wrong moment. Identifying genuinely sustainable edge requires a stricter filter than raw PnL rank.
We built a four-layer screening model with one core principle: win rates must land in the sustainable 60–90% band, then scored across win rate, profit factor, track diversity, consistency, and activity. 200 addresses entered. Only 8 passed everything.
These 8 cover politics, sports, esports, and geopolitics—each with a distinct edge. Equal-weight portfolio of the top 4: 89/90 days profitable, max drawdown only ,267, annualized Sharpe 30.60. The report includes a style breakdown for each trader, best timing windows, and a quick-match guide by risk profile.
Screening Methodology
On-chain OrderFilled events pulled via polystream for the 7 days ending 2026-03-12.
- Removed 78 zero-trade addresses
- Removed 17 API timeout addresses
- Kept 105 recently active traders
- Daily trade frequency ≥ 20
- At least one Tag win rate in the 60–90% sweet spot
- >90% excluded: small-sample statistical noise
- <60% excluded: likely unprofitable after slippage
- Win rate avg · Profit factor · Tag diversity
- Consistency · Trading activity
- 53 scored, top 8 selected
Track Analysis
| # | Track | Qualified Traders | Avg Win Rate | Track Total PnL | Per-trader PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Politics | 2 | ,935,956 | ,967,978 | |
| 2 | NFL | 1 | ,692,794 | ,692,794 | |
| 3 | Elections | 2 | ,658,603 | ,329,301 | |
| 4 | Trump | 3 | ,369,872 | 89,957 | |
| 5 | World | 4 | ,304,575 | 76,144 | |
| 6 | Geopolitics | 3 | ,085,477 | 95,159 | |
| 7 | CFB | 1 | ,661,141 | ,661,141 | |
| 8 | Culture | 4 | ,616,893 | 04,223 | |
| 9 | Bitcoin | 2 | ,401,746 | 00,873 | |
| 10 | NCAA | 2 | ,357,759 | 78,880 | |
| 11 | NCAA Basketball | 2 | ,357,756 | 78,878 | |
| 12 | Soccer | 1 | ,339,818 | ,339,818 | |
| 13 | Trump Presidency | 4 | ,125,528 | 81,382 | |
| 14 | Counter Strike 2 | 3 | ,118,837 | 72,946 | |
| 15 | Esports | 2 | ,076,478 | 38,239 |
Political Tracks: High Return, High Volatility
Politics / Trump / Elections combined for over M in PnL, but returns are event-driven. Liquidity spikes around votes, policy announcements, and key dates—then dries up fast.
Copy trading tip: Focus on YatSen / aenews2 / ImJustKen during political event windows (72h before votes, around policy releases). Reduce exposure outside those windows.
Sports Tracks: Stable and Predictable
NCAA / MLB / NFL / NHL win rates cluster evenly at 62–77% with strong seasonal patterns. Top sports traders often run statistical models or have informational advantages—lower signal noise for copy traders.
Copy trading tip: AgricultureSecretary and kutar. are the most reliable sports copy targets. Run them in-season; rotate to political tracks in the off-season.
Niche Tracks: Largest Information Edge
Counter Strike 2 / Esports / Weather markets have low liquidity and few participants—which means specialized knowledge commands a major edge. S-Works holding 68–70% win rates in CS2 and Tennis reflects genuine domain expertise.
Copy trading tip: Keep position sizes modest, but these signals get “priced in” slowly—higher tolerance for copy delay than political markets.
Recommended Addresses
91% win rate with a 5.24 profit factor means he only pulls the trigger on the highest-conviction setups—each win far outweighs each loss. Focus on sports and crypto keeps signals stable regardless of political cycles. Moderate total PnL reflects conservative sizing—but that’s exactly what makes him ideal to copy. Copy his logic, not his scale.
.4M in profits driven by political judgment: 83% on Trump, 74% on Politics, profit factor 5.35 signals he knows when to size up. Finance at 100% (likely smaller sample) shows he reads monetary policy markets too. Best copy window: 72 hours around major policy announcements or election-related events.
Profit factor 11.84 is the highest in this list by a wide margin—for every lost, he wins back 1.84 on average. Only 2 qualified tags means he’s extremely selective, acting only at maximum conviction. High daily frequency (377 trades) likely serves as price-discovery probing before concentrated bets. Each signal is exceptionally high-value—suitable for heavier sizing.
At 1,832 trades/day—by far the highest frequency here—combined with 93.9% win rate, this looks like systematic arbitrage: capturing brief mispricing on odds. NCAA/CFB win rates of 99%/97% are near-perfect. Key caveat: part of his edge is speed. Execution lag will erode some of it. Only follow his qualified-tag positions.
4 qualified tags—the most diversified PnL base in the list. Particularly notable: 75% on Weather markets, one of the hardest tracks to profit consistently on—real data analysis capability. Can be followed year-round with consistent output outside political cycles. Best candidate for a long-term base position.
.82M highest total PnL, but profit factor only 2.22 and win rate 63.1%—his edge isn’t a sky-high strike rate, it’s capital scale and trade frequency (694 trades/day). Accumulated gains through sheer volume. Strategy has a capital-size dependency—smaller accounts copying his full book will underperform. Stick to Politics/Trump tags only.
Holding 68% in Counter Strike 2 and 70% in Tennis—two markets with low liquidity and few participants. Sustaining that win rate here means real specialized knowledge, not pure statistical arb. .2M total PnL proves niche markets can deliver serious alpha. Dense CS2/Tennis schedules are the most productive copy windows.
Focused on MLB and NHL at 88% and 87% respectively, but total PnL only 32K—he’s running extremely conservative position sizes, favoring low-risk certainty over scale. High frequency (402/day) + near-perfect win rates = minimal drawdown stabilizer. Limited upside in absolute terms, but an ideal anchor in a diversified portfolio.
Portfolio Simulation
Copy Trading Strategy
Diversify Across Traders
Follow 3–5 addresses simultaneously to avoid single-point dependency. Different track specialists naturally hedge against any one track’s volatility.
Tag-Selective Copying
Don’t copy every trade. Only follow a trader’s positions in their qualified tags (WR ≥ 60%). Example: follow YatSen only on Trump/Politics positions; ignore his trades in lower win-rate markets.
Position Sizing
No single copy trade should exceed 2% of total capital. Total exposure to any single address should stay under 20%. Keep overall portfolio exposure at 60–80%, maintaining a cash buffer.
Stop-Loss Rules
7 consecutive loss days or win rate drops below 50% → pause and monitor. Single address single-week loss exceeds 15% of initial allocation → auto-pause. Portfolio total drawdown exceeds 10% → cut all positions to 50%.
Dynamic Rebalancing
Review each address’s 7-day on-chain activity and win rate weekly. Replace deteriorating addresses with rising candidates from the reserve pool. Track Smart Money ranking changes and prioritize upward-trending addresses.
Who to Follow: Quick Match Guide
I’m new / I want stability over returns
Prioritize sports specialists—high win rates, low volatility, straightforward signal logic (outcome certainty is high). Avoid copying large-capital political whales directly; their sizing logic is complex.
I have capital / I want higher absolute returns
Copy YatSen + ImJustKen’s political tag positions, with heavy focus during event windows. Keep aenews2 as a base position for cross-cycle stability.
I want high-edge signals / sizing single opportunities
cqs’s 11.84 profit factor is the highest in the list—every signal is extremely carefully filtered. Pair with AgricultureSecretary as a hedge. Focus on cqs’s World/Trump Presidency positions during geopolitical escalation.
I want an all-weather diversified portfolio
aenews2 is the most stable year-round core position. Add S-Works (during CS2/tennis schedules) and kutar. (North American sports seasons)—minimal track overlap creates natural cycle hedging.
Full Address List
| Rating | Name | Full Address | PnL | Win Rate | Profit Factor | Smart Money Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | AgricultureSecretary | 0x6ffb4354cbe6e0f9989e3b55564ec5fb8646a834 | 90,172 | 91.0% | 5.24 | #19 |
| S | YatSen | 0x5bffcf561bcae83af680ad600cb99f1184d6ffbe | ,409,470 | 68.6% | 5.35 | #70 |
| S | cqs | 0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4 | 11,691 | 75.0% | 11.84 | #76 |
| S | kutar. | 0xfc25f141ed27bb1787338d2c4e7f51e3a15e1f7f | 96,449 | 93.9% | 3.37 | #11 |
| S | aenews2 | 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1 | ,960,435 | 74.5% | 3.36 | #52 |
| S | ImJustKen | 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344 | ,824,968 | 63.1% | 2.22 | #67 |
| S | S-Works | 0xee00ba338c59557141789b127927a55f5cc5cea1 | ,226,130 | 66.9% | 2.05 | #77 |
| S | brody55 | 0xf6415fa0aa9cb944c1c4afb9bc53ca82dd797b6f | 32,337 | 83.6% | 1.76 | #48 |
directly with PolyHub
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